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Yours truly turned in a decent time finishing 3rdin the 50+ category (and yes there were more than 3 people participating!). I still have lots to learn in riding a road bike – the dude who won averaged 35km/hour – over 20%faster than me! Well, there is always next year.
The more important thing was a lot of great friends and colleagues sponsored me to the tune of over $18,000 – also good for 3rd place on the individual fundraising totem pole. Joe’s Team raised close to $1 million on the day and over $10 million the past 10 years. Joe Finlay was an incredible individual – if you are looking for inspiration or to get involved next year, please click here to find out more.
Cheers and I hope you are enjoying the summer!
Our best guess is that Mr. Poloz will bring out his best dancing shoes and try to convince the market that the rates need not rise for a long time. The canary in the coal mine is of course the Canadian household/ consumer. You know the one that is up to his gizzards in debt and, relative to other countries (see chart below), keeps moving up.
Higher expected rates are lighting a fire under the C$ which is now up over 1% YTD versus the USD. This is bad news for everyone - especially me because I am very short the C$! It is also bad news for our exporters and tourism industries – but not so for Albertans awash in oil and gas. Those prices continue to climb on the back of a better US economy, tightening spreads and Iraqi instability. Higher energy prices clearly do not help the BOC either.
We are patiently waiting for the C$ to settle into a new level. In the meantime, I am going to wake-up our trader and tell him he may finally be able to trade in a few weeks time – we will look to get materially shorter. Hopefully this is the start of some decent volatility.
Have a great holiday long weekend!
1. Pavilion Corporation, Global Strategy Note, page 3, June 26, 2014
“How is this possible, you ask, with outright war simmering in Eastern Ukraine and China flexing its muscles in the South China Sea? Because Mario Draghi is "signalling" that he's going to launch a European version of QE. Because the Narrative of Central Bank Omnipotence has never been stronger, and for markets this is the only thing that matters. Because we continue to live in the new Goldilocks environment, where mediocre growth is not so weak as to plunge us into recession but not so strong as to take central banks out of play. If the news gets a lot better the market will go down, and if the news gets a lot worse the market will go down. But what I call the Entropic Ending, a market-positive gray slog where global growth is more-or-less permanently crippled by the very monetary policies that prevent global growth from collapsing, can go on for a looooooong time”.
Source: Bloomberg, May 2014
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Hunt is developing a model of sorts based on game theory, history and behavioural analysis to help “explain” why markets act the way they do. As many readers know, I subscribe to the view that behavioural analysisis a very important component of understanding security and market actions.Hunt of course is referring above to the concept of Narrative Fallacy (see prior posts on Kahneman) when referring to central bank omnipotence.
But back to the VIX again. Deutsche Bank’s strategist David Bianco produced an interesting gauge of the market’s emotional level i.e. P/E÷ VIX. The accompanying chart plots this relationship over time. Given that we are now entering a period of “complacency” (at least from a historical standpoint), caution is warranted. Butt hen as many market commentators have stated “What do you do with the cash if you take profits?” The central bankers want you to take more risk. We would suggest a few other alternatives!
PE/VIX = market emotion: lately drifting in and out of complacency
We define 5 categories of market emotion gauged by PE/VIX: 1) Crash - very high VIX and low PE, 2) Skeptical/Denial - VIX elevated and PE still low, 3) Realistic/Disciplined - Both PE and VIX within normal ranges, 4) Complacency - low VIX or high PE or both, 5) Mania - very high PE and low VIX.
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