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I came across an interesting article authored by the folks at Altegris Advisors in the US – the full piece is available here. In it, they argue the case for investing in macro trading and trend following strategies now. While it seems like a distant memory, those investors who had exposure to these strategies will remember how valuable they were for clients in 2008. They provided very attractive, uncorrelated returns when virtually all other investments went south. For those with even better memories, these strategies delivered solid returns in prior decades as well. Unfortunately, since 2009 there has been little in the way of performance and many retail investors have been ‘shaken out’. They present a number of reasons for this state of affairs (largely central bank policies) and a number of interesting factors that auger well for a timely reversal of fortune. We have added 5% exposure to this strategy via the Exemplar Diversified Fund, sub advised by IMFC (click here for details), to our fund of funds and recommend similar levels for private client accounts.
Please feel free to call us if you would like further information.
Best wishes and we hope you are enjoying the summer.
Yours truly turned in a decent time finishing 3rdin the 50+ category (and yes there were more than 3 people participating!). I still have lots to learn in riding a road bike – the dude who won averaged 35km/hour – over 20%faster than me! Well, there is always next year.
The more important thing was a lot of great friends and colleagues sponsored me to the tune of over $18,000 – also good for 3rd place on the individual fundraising totem pole. Joe’s Team raised close to $1 million on the day and over $10 million the past 10 years. Joe Finlay was an incredible individual – if you are looking for inspiration or to get involved next year, please click here to find out more.
Cheers and I hope you are enjoying the summer!
Our best guess is that Mr. Poloz will bring out his best dancing shoes and try to convince the market that the rates need not rise for a long time. The canary in the coal mine is of course the Canadian household/ consumer. You know the one that is up to his gizzards in debt and, relative to other countries (see chart below), keeps moving up.
Higher expected rates are lighting a fire under the C$ which is now up over 1% YTD versus the USD. This is bad news for everyone - especially me because I am very short the C$! It is also bad news for our exporters and tourism industries – but not so for Albertans awash in oil and gas. Those prices continue to climb on the back of a better US economy, tightening spreads and Iraqi instability. Higher energy prices clearly do not help the BOC either.
We are patiently waiting for the C$ to settle into a new level. In the meantime, I am going to wake-up our trader and tell him he may finally be able to trade in a few weeks time – we will look to get materially shorter. Hopefully this is the start of some decent volatility.
Have a great holiday long weekend!
1. Pavilion Corporation, Global Strategy Note, page 3, June 26, 2014
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