|
|
Welcome back to reality! Hopefully the first day back is a good one for the kids – and for the markets as well.

By the way, in case you were wondering I think some guy from RIM took this picture! (Hat tip to Chris H out west for the pic)
Cheers,
Jim McGovern
Ian McEwan is without a doubt one of my favourite novelists. His latest book “Sweet Tooth” was released Tuesday.

(Click book cover for Amazon listing)
If you are not familiar with his work but enjoy wonderfully written psychological thrillers then this is a must read. After reading “Amsterdam” in the late 90’s, I have read all of his works– I especially enjoyed Enduring Love, Atonement (both made into movies that really did not do justice to the written word), and Saturday.
All good choices for a relaxing upcoming long weekend read.
You gotta love the Irish!
I could not resist, given all the blah blah that will be spewing tomorrow out of Jackson Hole, to forward along one of the funniest You Tube clips I have seen this year (the other was Honey Badger (click here) hat tip to Claire Van Wyk for both!). It involves Olympic Sailing as only seen from an Irishman’s perspective.
Enjoy – will post some more serious stuff next week!
Cheers,
Jim
The data last night out of Japan was not pretty. Japanese exports, especially those to the EU, fell dramatically as July represented its biggest monthly trade deficit ever. Part of this is the high value of the Yen but the reality is that Europe, and indeed the world, continues to slow. We continue to see Japan as a critical market given its precarious state of fiscal imbalance and it’s important in global economic affairs.
Looking at the other side of the ledger, Europe recorded its biggest trade surplus ever in June. This despite the fact that the European economy actually shrank in Q2, with Italy, Spain and other countries officially in recession. So, as Bloomberg Briefs noted today, the imbalances in Europe just continue to get worse – with the German and Dutch showing terrific export growth while the countries that need to benefit from a lower euro cannot generate anything resembling growth.
As Bloomberg notes,“trade balances of countries facing or receiving bailouts are recovering mainly because of declining imports rather than rising exports. That increases the risk of future imbalances.”* Lowering European rates and the value of the euro arguably help European growth but unfortunately not those countries that need it most.
Everyone knows that markets and economic activity are not highly correlated but is amazing how equity markets this summer have rallied on a mountain of worries based on more “easing”.
Jim McGovern
*Bloomberg Briefs, August 22, 2012 page 6
Bloomberg BRIEF Newsletter was out yesterday with a terrific note on Japanese demographics and its impact on GDP growth and debt dynamics. As we noted in our Q1 2012 report to clients, the Japanese economic situation should be much higher on investor's radar screen. With debt-to-GDP over 200% and potential GDP growth negatively impacted by an aging population (where by 2022 over 30% of its population will be over 65 years old), Japanese Government Bonds and the yen have yet to reflect these risks. Today they both rank as major "safe-haven" trades...but for how long?
Jim McGovern
P.S. I highly recommend the Bloomberg BRIEF Newsletters. They pull together the reporting, insight and analysis of senior editorial staff and dedicated economists to help you stay informed. Check it out on www.bloombergbriefs.com.